THE TWO AND HALF YEAR ROTATION FORMULA BEOCMES A CRISIS FOR CONGRESS: AJAY KUMAR

THE TWO AND HALF YEAR ROTATION FORMULA BEOCMES A CRISIS FOR CONGRESS: AJAY KUMAR

29-NOV-ENG 9

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

ARA---------------------------The storm brewing in Karnataka politics over the past few days is clearly demonstrating the extent of the tussle at the top of the state's power hierarchy. Congress won a landslide victory in the 2023 assembly elections, capturing 135 out of 224 seats, while the BJP was reduced to 66 and the JDS to 19. Following the victory, Congress formed the government in the state, but the real game of power began to unfold the day Siddaramaiah was installed as Chief Minister and DK Shivakumar was appointed Deputy CM, with the expectation that his turn would come after two and a half years. The time for this two-and-a-half-year rotation formula is now near. With Siddaramaiah's two-and-a-half-year term having been completed, Shivakumar's supporters have begun increasing pressure on the party leadership. The unannounced arrival of MLAs close to him in Delhi and their attempts to meet with Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge are being seen as part of this pressure tactic. The viral photos and videos of this meeting have further intensified the political turmoil in Karnataka.

Amidst speculation about a change of power in the state, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has clarified his stance. He stated that Karnataka has received a five-year mandate and he will complete his full term. He dismissed media reports of a "November Revolution" as baseless, stating that the government is stable under his leadership and that he will present next year's budget. This statement by Siddaramaiah clearly indicates that he is in no mood to relinquish power. Political analysts believe that Siddaramaiah wants to set the record for the longest-serving Chief Minister of Karnataka, and this opportunity is crucial for him. Shivakumar, on the other hand, is patiently awaiting the high command's decision, yet seizing every opportunity to strengthen his claim. He is the most prominent leader of the Vokkaliga community and has a strong hold in South Karnataka. Although some segments of this community appeared to be inclined towards the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Shivakumar's hold on the state organization remained undiminished. He holds a distinct reputation as a troubleshooter for the Congress. His activism and strategy during Congress crises in states like Madhya Pradesh, Goa, and Gujarat are considered a major force within the party. This is why, despite pressure from the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) just before the 2023 Karnataka elections, he persevered, and after the electoral victory, this new story of power began with Siddaramaiah.

But there has always been an unspoken struggle within this story, which has now come to the fore. Shivakumar's statement, "No position is permanent; I am first in line," is an open declaration of his ambition. He is constantly assuring his supporters that his turn will come. But the question of when will it come is currently troubling Karnataka politics. The Congress high command is now grappling with handling this unease. The BJP has launched an offensive, calling the situation an "internal crisis within the Congress." The opposition alleges that administrative work has been severely affected by the power struggle. Contractors have claimed that payments worth approximately ₹33,000 crore are being delayed. This impact is clearly visible on development projects. BJP leaders have also accused the Congress government of operating only on paper, while development on the ground has stalled. The growing unease within the Congress can be gauged from the fact that many MLAs believe that if the situation remains the same, they may face consequences in the 2028 elections. Some senior party leaders have openly urged the high command to clarify the situation and end the ongoing tussle over the Chief Minister's post. Internal meetings have agreed that the party's message should be one of unity, not a power struggle.

The question also arises: if the high command doesn't risk removing Siddaramaiah, could Shivakumar take firmer action? His statements often indicate that he doesn't associate himself with decisions outside the party, but nothing is impossible in politics. The Maharashtra model has been discussed many times, where governments have toppled overnight. Shivakumar's good relations with the BJP have also been discussed frequently. The presence of cases filed against him and the activeness of agencies are also used as political signals. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the BJP finds an opportunity in this internal Congress battle. It is said that the agreement between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar was the foundation of Congress's victory. But now that agreement is destabilizing Congress's power. The high command faces Siddaramaiah's OBC politics on one hand, and Shivakumar's organizational influence and Vokkaliga vote bank on the other. Both leaders have their own strengths and limitations. In such a situation, angering either side would be risky for the Congress.

The buzz in Bengaluru suggests that something significant is afoot. If Siddaramaiah is removed, he may perceive it as a step against his political legacy, and his resentment could become apparent. Meanwhile, if Shivakumar's candidacy is postponed, his supporters may take to the streets, considering it a breach of promise. This wave rising within the Congress party could turn into a tsunami in the coming months. The people of the state had hoped that the government, which won with a landslide majority, would write a new chapter of development. But today, the state's politics is entangled in two clashing aspirations for power. Resolving this conflict is as important as it is difficult for the Congress high command. The decision as to who emerges ahead and who is sidelined in this battle for power in Karnataka will be decided in the coming weeks. But one thing is certain: this political maneuvering has plunged the future of power in Karnataka into uncertainty.