VOTERS IN BIHAR MAY DECREASE SINCE 2005

VOTERS IN BIHAR MAY DECREASE SINCE 2005

28-JULY-ENG 8

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

ARA--------------------------72.4 million forms have been collected during the calculation of the voter list under Special Intensive Revision (SIR) in Bihar. This number is 6.5 million (8%) less than the number of voters registered in the state on June 24, a day before the SIR began. It is 4.8 million (6.2%) less than the number during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It is 1.2 million (1.6%) less than the number during the 2020 state assembly elections. The Election Commission gave this information.

In this way, there has been a clear decrease in the number of voters in Bihar. However, the final voter list is to be published on September 30. This is the first decrease since the two assembly elections held in 2005. The number of voters in Bihar has usually been increasing for assembly and Lok Sabha elections. We examined data from all assembly elections since 1977 (based on the remaining assembly seats in Bihar after Jharkhand was created in 2000) and all Lok Sabha elections since 2004 (the first Lok Sabha election after Jharkhand was created).

The number of voters increased in every successive election during this period, except between the February and October assembly elections of 2005, when the number of voters fell from 52.7 million to 51.3 million (a decrease of 2.5%). The 2005 trend shows that a decline in the number of voters in Bihar is not impossible. But, if the number of voters in the final voter list published on September 30 remains less than the 2020 assembly elections (73.6 million) or the 2024 Lok Sabha elections (77.3 million), it will be a rare occurrence in Bihar.

The 8% drop from 78.9 million voters on June 24 to 72.4 million on July 27 is even bigger and steeper than the 2.5% drop between February and October in 2005, which occurred in less than a year. The drop in voter turnout in a state with a high fertility rate like Bihar was surprising even in 2005, when it came two years after the 2003 Special Intensive Revision (SIR) and after the Lok Sabha elections.

Bihar's high fertility rate led to a 28.5% increase in the adult population in the state between the 2001 and 2011 censuses. However, the rate of migration from the state also accelerated during this period. There is still time to correct the drop in voter turnout seen in the SIRs so far in 2025. According to the Election Commission, voters can be re-added to the rolls during the claim and objection period from August 1 to September 1. Also, the youth who will turn 18 years old by October 1 can also be included in the voter list during this period. This may cause a slight change in the figures.