THIS ELECTION IS POISED TO SET A NEW POLITICAL COURSE IN BIHAR

THIS ELECTION IS POISED TO SET A NEW POLITICAL COURSE IN BIHAR

27-SEP-ENG 9

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

PATNA-----------------------Bihar politics is a canvas in itself, where each election paints a new picture, but the colors of that picture remain the same: caste, religion, region, and coalition strength. Politics in this state isn't driven by mere slogans or promises of development; instead, voters constantly consider where their caste, community, and region stand in terms of power sharing. This is why, to understand the Bihar elections, we first need to delve into the caste equations and then examine the nuances of coalition politics.

The recent Ascendia 'Battle of Bihar 2025' survey attempts to unravel this political landscape. The survey, conducted across all nine divisions of the state, reveals that this time too, the Bihar elections will be divided between caste equations and the two major alliances: the NDA and the Grand Alliance. However, the contest this time is less straightforward than it was in 2020. The reason is the emergence of two new forces. First, the emergence of Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraj Party and second, Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM. Both have complicated the electoral landscape, and this complexity is making this election interesting. Any electoral analysis in Bihar that ignores caste is incomplete. The political structure here is such that each caste has its own vote bank, and its inclinations influence the outcome. Dalits, Extremely Backward Classes, OBCs, and Muslims are the four major pillars on which Bihar's politics rests.

Dalits constitute approximately 20 percent of Bihar's population. Among these, the Jatav or Ram (5 percent), Paswan (5 percent), and Musahar (3 percent) are the dominant castes. This class always has a decisive influence. According to surveys, the Paswan and Musahar communities still lean towards the NDA. This is largely due to the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) being in the NDA and some welfare programs implemented by Nitish Kumar's government. However, there is turmoil within the Jatav or Ram community. Youth from this community are now showing interest in Chandrashekhar Ravan of the Azad Samaj Party. If this attraction translates into votes, the Grand Alliance could benefit.

The Extremely Backward Class (EBC) constitutes approximately 26 percent of the population and has leaned toward the NDA in several previous elections. Nitish Kumar has proven himself to be the most prominent leader of this community. However, nothing is permanent in politics. If the Grand Alliance gives this community a substantial share in ticket distribution, there is potential for change within them. This is the community that could swing the outcome at the last minute. Yadavs constitute the largest segment of the OBC community. Yadav voters appear to be firmly behind the RJD. The foundation laid by Lalu Prasad Yadav through the "Mai Equation"—Muslim and Yadav—remains strong. However, the picture of the OBC community outside of the Yadav community is different. Castes like the Koeri and Kurmi are more inclined toward the NDA. Nitish Kumar belongs to the Kurmi community, and the BJP has consistently strived to retain these castes. However, a portion of the Koeri or Kushwaha vote bank had already swung toward the Grand Alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and the possibility of this shift cannot be ruled out this time around.

Bihar's Muslim vote bank has always been a crucial component of electoral calculations. This segment, comprising approximately 17 percent of the population, has long been a staunch supporter of the Grand Alliance, especially the RJD. However, recent elections have seen some turbulence within this vote bank. In the 2020 assembly elections, Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM made inroads in the Seemanchal region, garnering approximately 17 percent of the Muslim vote. However, this scenario changed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with approximately 83 percent of the Muslim vote going to the Grand Alliance. However, the latest survey points to a new unease.

Muslim voters may still prefer the Grand Alliance, but there is also dissatisfaction among them. This dissatisfaction is particularly deep in the Seemanchal region, where Muslims constitute more than half the population. The lack of prominence given to Muslim leaders during Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav's "Voter Rights Yatra" is the root of this dissatisfaction. Muslim voters are no longer satisfied with merely formal membership in the alliance; they want more tickets and a direct share in power. Even the demand for the post of Deputy Chief Minister is becoming more public.

In this backdrop, Owaisi's activism poses a challenge to the Grand Alliance. His presence in Seemanchal has already been proven. If the Grand Alliance ignores the aspirations of the Muslim leadership, Owaisi could turn this dissatisfaction into political capital. Prashant Kishor, long the country's most renowned election strategist, is now in the fray with his party, Jan Suraj. Surveys indicate that the Jan Suraj Party could emerge as a third force. Its impact is particularly felt in South Bihar, while its hold remains weak in North Bihar.

The Jan Suraj Party may attract voters who are tired of traditional alliances and are looking for a new alternative, but in Bihar politics, merely chanting "change" is not enough. Success here requires a grasp of caste equations. Currently, PK's biggest challenge is how to carve out a niche in this complex caste equation. The survey analyzed the state's Tirhut, Darbhanga, Saran, Kosi, Purnia, Magadh, Munger, Patna, and Bhagalpur divisions, as well as the Bhojpur region.

Magadh and The Grand Alliance is expected to suffer losses in Bhojpur. The Grand Alliance may gain seats in Purnia and Seemanchal, but the Owaisi factor could put them in trouble here. If we consider the 2020 results, the NDA won 125 seats, while the Grand Alliance was reduced to 110. This difference was not very large, and this is why the 2025 elections are going to be even more exciting.

The Bihar elections are not just a question of voter choice, but also a test of coalition politics. The BJP-JDU alliance in the NDA has often fluctuated, but this time Nitish Kumar is again leading the same alliance. The Grand Alliance includes the RJD, the Congress, and the Left parties, but internal differences and the seat-sharing crisis appear to be deepening there. Keeping the Grand Alliance united poses the biggest challenge for Tejashwi Yadav, given the unease of Muslim voters, the unwavering support of Yadavs, the inclination of the extremely backward classes, and Owaisi's activism. On the other hand, the NDA will have to maintain its old social engineering and prevent potential losses from new forces like Jan Suraj.

Overall, the 2025 Bihar election is not going to be a one-sided contest. This election will be a confluence of caste dynamics, alliance strength, and the challenge of new political forces. The NDA is gaining strength among Dalits, extremely backward classes, and non-Yadav OBCs, while the Grand Alliance is relying on the Yadav and Muslim vote bank. However, the growing unease among Muslim voters and Owaisi's activism could challenge this confidence. Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraj Party, while it may not appear decisive across the state at present, could have enough influence to turn the contest triangular in many seats and swing the results in unexpected directions. Ultimately, this election will not be a battle between just two alliances. This election will reveal whether Bihar politics is still completely in the grip of caste equations or voters are slowly starting to look towards new options, but it is certain that this time's election can change the political course of Bihar and the results will affect the politics not only of Patna but also of Delhi.