WINNING SHAHABAD IS A MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR THE NDA

WINNING SHAHABAD IS A MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR THE NDA

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RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

PATNA-----------------------The NDA has begun working on every front for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. The NDA suffered a major setback in Shahabad in both the 2020 Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It was almost completely wiped out. However, the NDA achieved success in the recent assembly by-elections.

Who has the strongest hold in Shahabad?: In the 2020 Assembly elections, only two out of 22 seats were won. JDU failed to even open its account, while the NDA lost all four Lok Sabha seats in the Lok Sabha elections. Even when Nitish and Lalu Prasad Yadav were together in Shahabad, the NDA did not face such a situation.

NDA's Mission Shahabad: Now, several steps are being taken to win in 2025. The NDA is working to consolidate its position by clearing up confusion. Senior leaders from Shahabad have been reassigned to positions of responsibility. New leaders are also being inducted.

The NDA suffered a setback in Shahabad in 2020 and 2024: Even when Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav contested the assembly elections together in 2015, the NDA wasn't completely wiped out in Shahabad. RJD, JDU, and Congress won only 15 of the 22 seats, with RJD winning nine and JDU winning five.

Stellar performance in 2019: After Nitish Kumar's defection, the NDA set a record by winning 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. The NDA won all of Shahabad's Lok Sabha seats, but in 2020, the NDA was wiped out in Shahabad. The NDA won only two of the 22 assembly seats. JDU failed to even open its account.

The public turned its back on the NDA in 2020: The Grand Alliance candidate won 19 of the 22 seats. The BSP won one seat. Jama Khan, who won on a BSP ticket, later joined the JDU and is currently the Minister of Minority Welfare. In the first phase of 2020, the Grand Alliance's tsunami swept the NDA candidates. With the exception of the seats in Ara and Barhara, the Grand Alliance's alliance was a tsunami.

The LJP played its game: Both the RJD and JDU relied on backward and extremely backward class voters. The BJP relied on its traditional vote bank, but the LJP disrupted the NDA's game. By fielding rebel candidates everywhere, the contest became triangular, a direct benefit to the Grand Alliance.

The RJD captured the public mood: The RJD took the public mood into account when selecting candidates. In the Shahabad zone, the RJD fielded a Rajput candidate in Ramgarh, the only constituency in the region. In the remaining assembly constituencies, it fielded candidates from backward and extremely backward castes. However, the Congress fielded a Brahmin candidate in Kargahar, who won. The RJD also fielded a backward caste candidate instead of a Muslim candidate in Dehri, which also benefited it.

The Grand Alliance's fortunes changed in Shahabad: The Grand Alliance won 19 of the 22 seats in the Shahabad zone. Due to Lalu's social equation and Chirag Paswan's candidacy, the NDA failed to open its account in Buxar, Rohtas, and Kaimur districts. Of the seven assembly constituencies in Bhojpur district, Ara and Barhara narrowly escaped.

Grand Alliance benefited from the LJP: The BSP won the only Chainpur seat in Kaimur. The LJP candidate's separation from the NDA proved to be a icing on the cake for the Grand Alliance. Wherever LJP candidates made their presence felt, the Grand Alliance candidates won by a landslide. In Tarari, CPI(ML) candidate Sudama Prasad made the journey to victory easier for BJP candidate Kaushal Kumar Vidyarthi and independent candidate Sunil Pandey, who had rebelled against the LJP.

JDU failed to even open its account: In the Shahabad zone, JDU fielded candidates in 11 assembly constituencies and lost in all of them. RJD candidate Fateh Bahadur won the Dehri-on-Sone seat by just 81 votes against BJP candidate Satyanarayan. In Bhojpur district, the JDU candidate in Agiaon was defeated by CPI-ML's Manoj Manzil by over 48,000 votes.

RJD's Kiran Devi Wins in Sandesh: Meanwhile, RJD's Kiran Devi won a landslide victory in Sandesh by 51,000 votes. In Dinara, JDU candidate and former minister Jaikumar Singh came in third. LJP candidate Rajendra Singh came in second. In the Grand Alliance, the CPI-ML's support in Shahabad proved to be a significant advantage. While the CPI-ML regained its lost seats, it achieved success for the first time in Dumraon and Agiaon. The CPI-ML contested five seats in Shahabad, losing only one of these, Ara, by a narrow margin.

A setback for the NDA in 2024: This is the story of the 2020 assembly elections. Not much changed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA lost all four Lok Sabha seats: Buxar, Ara, Sasaram, and Karakat. In a way, after the 2020 assembly elections, the NDA suffered a major setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well.

Old leaders in active mode: Preparations are now underway for the 2025 assembly elections. The JDU is preparing to regain its lost strength. Old leaders are being activated. Old leaders have also been given responsibilities. Bhagwan Singh Kushwaha has been made a member of the Legislative Council, while several new, strong leaders are also being inducted into the JDU.

"The wind will be in the NDA's favor in 2025. The confusion that arose in 2020 is now being addressed at the booth level through various programs." - Jai Kumar Singh, former minister

"We are also putting in our efforts. The work done by leader Nitish Kumar will change the situation in Shahabad this time. We also won the by-election." - Jama Khan, Minister of Minority Welfare, Bihar

Political Expert's Opinion: Politics Political expert Sunil Pandey says that returning to power in Shahabad is a major challenge not only for the JDU but also for the BJP, as the Grand Alliance is now in a very strong position there. It's not that the NDA lacks a strong support base in Shahabad, but while the top leaders demonstrate unity, a lack of unity at the grassroots level can lead to a chaotic situation right at the time of elections.

"This was also seen in the Lok Sabha elections. The NDA lost four Lok Sabha seats in Shahabad, and not only that, half of Aurangabad falls within Shahabad. Aurangabad also fell to the NDA, resulting in a loss of five Lok Sabha seats this time. In 2020, the NDA was also nearly wiped out. Therefore, it's crucial that unity be seen at the grassroots level in that area. Only then is the NDA or JDU's return possible." - Sunil Kumar Pandey, political expert

Performance in the 2020 Assembly Elections: Shahabad has 22 assembly seats. The NDA won only two. JDU contested 11 seats but failed to win a single candidate. The Grand Alliance won 19 seats, with the BSP winning one.

Performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Shahabad: The Shahabad region has four Lok Sabha seats. The Grand Alliance won all four. The NDA lost Ara, Buxar, Sasaram, and Karakat.

What was the main reason for the defeat: The Grand Alliance benefited from fielding LJP candidates in the 2020 assembly elections. Most of the LJP candidates were BJP rebels, and this created confusion. Lalu Prasad Yadav took advantage of this and, in keeping with social dynamics, gave tickets to mostly backward and backward castes.

Caste equation backfired: Lalu Prasad Yadav's attempt to cultivate caste equations in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections resulted in a loss for the NDA. Pawan Singh's entry into the fray resulted in a loss of backward and backward caste votes, while also facing the displeasure of upper caste voters.

What are the NDA's preparations now? The NDA currently comprises five parties: the BJP, the JDU, the LJP, Ram Vilas Paswan's party, the HAM, and Upendra Kushwaha's RLM. The state presidents of all five parties are about to launch district-level programs. Efforts are underway to resolve the confusion that arose between 2020 and 2024, down to the booth level. Old Shahabad leaders are being activated, and several are being given important responsibilities.

Achieving the 225-seat target is impossible without securing Shahabad: The NDA has set a target of 225 seats for 2025. Therefore, if the NDA fails to achieve Shahabad, reaching the target will be impossible, and that is why Nitish Kumar is determined not to miss a significant portion of Shahabad this time.