SPLITTING OF THE BADAHARA AND SHAHPUR CANDIDATES’ CASTE-BASED VOTES WITH HINDUTVA VISIBLE IN ARA

SPLITTING OF THE BADAHARA AND SHAHPUR CANDIDATES’ CASTE-BASED VOTES WITH HINDUTVA VISIBLE IN ARA

5-NOV-ENG 19

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

ARA------------------------In the Barhara and Shahpur assembly constituencies of Bhojpur district, the ruling party and the opposition have played a game of checkmate by fielding candidates from the same caste. In Ara, the Hindutva card is being used, but especially in Ara, Jansuraaj (People's Republic) cannot be ignored. However, discussions among voters at intersections and leaks from political circles indicate that something unexpected may happen this time. Despite the presence of candidates from the same caste in Barhara and Shahpur, voters from the same caste are not consolidating in favor of the ruling and opposition candidates. This time, voters from other castes will play a decisive role. While splitting of Rajput and Brahmin voters is being seen in Barhara and Shahpur, especially among the Bania voters in Ara.

Barhara Assembly Candidates: Raghavendra Pratap Singh (BJP) and Rambabu Singh (RJD)

This fact has emerged from an analysis of the previous election results of the Ara Lok Sabha constituency and the Barhara Assembly constituency in Barhara. In the Lok Sabha election results, Sudama Prasad of the CPI(ML) received 72,651 votes, while RK Singh of the BJP received 70,869 votes, resulting in Mr. Singh's defeat by approximately 2,000 votes. Raghavendra Pratap Singh, a Rajput, has held this Assembly seat, once with the RJD and now with the BJP. In the 2020 Assembly elections, BJP's Raghavendra Pratap Singh received 76,182 votes, while RJD candidate Saroj Yadav received 71,209 votes, leaving the RJD defeated. People of the area say that then Rajput voters got united and Raghavendra Pratap Singh also won over some Yadav voters under his influence. But there was another aspect of former MLA Asha Devi who, on not getting the party ticket, jumped into the election fray as an independent and got 7203 votes. This time Suryabhan Singh jumped into the election fray as a rebel. There was hope that he would be the BJP candidate. Suryabhan, belonging to Rajput caste, has a good influence in Rajput and Brahmin community which can be a headache for the BJP candidate. A similar headache will be former MLC Ranvijay Singh of Rajpur (Koilwar), who belongs to the Rajput caste. As part of its strategy, the RJD (Grand Alliance) has fielded Rambabu Singh, also from the Rajput caste, this time. This means they can make inroads into the Rajput vote, as the MY equation is already consolidating for the RJD. Similarly, former RJD MLAs contesting as independents could also be a headache for the RJD candidate. However, amid these concerns, the possibility of a split in the Rajput vote, especially, cannot be ruled out.

Shahpur Assembly Candidates: Rahul Tiwari (RJD) and Rajiv Ranjan Ojha (BJP)

Similarly, in the neighboring Shahpur Assembly constituency, candidates from the same caste are facing off. The son of the late Bisheshwar Ojha, who once opposed his aunt Munni Devi Ojha (the BJP candidate), fielded his mother Shobha Devi, garnering approximately 24,000 votes, resulting in the BJP candidate's defeat. RJD candidate Rahul Tiwari secured 64,393 votes. Sudama Prasad had also defeated R.K. Singh in the Lok Sabha elections. R.K. Singh secured 65,607 votes, while Sudama Prasad secured 67,895. However, this time, both parties are Brahmins, and the aunt and nephew are on the same platform. The possibility of a split in the Brahmin vote, meaning it could be divided into two parts, cannot be ruled out. Consequently, candidates from both parties and the opposition are apprehensive. The current election could prove to be a headache, especially for Rahul Tiwari. The feud between the late Bisheshwar Ojha and Shivajeet Mishra in this area is well known. Ara Assembly Candidates: Qayamuddin Ansari (CPI-ML) and Sanjay Singh Tiger (BJP)

In the Ara Assembly constituency, the issues of Hindutva and Jai Shri Ram are being used to mobilize voters. In the parliamentary elections, R.K. Singh received 82,324 votes, while Sudama Prasad received 74,053. Mr. Singh defeated Mr. Prasad by nearly 20,000 votes. In the 2020 Assembly elections, Mo. Qayamuddin Ansari, as the Grand Alliance candidate, faced off against BJP candidate Amarendra Pratap Singh, and Qayamuddin lost by nearly 3,000 votes. In the changing environment, the BJP has nominated former MLA Sanjay Singh Tiger, who has a clean image, in place of Amarendra Pratap, while the Grand Alliance has fielded former CPI-ML candidate Qayamuddin Ansari. As before, the slogan "Jai Shri Ram" is once again resonating in the area. If the Yadav vote isn't divided, anything is possible.

Ara Assembly Jansuraj candidate Dr. Vijay Kumar Gupta

But Jansuraj candidate Dr. Vijay Gupta, who comes from the Baniya community, could be a headache for the BJP candidate.

However, based on the results of previous Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, his visits to the area, and discussions at public squares, we will see a fragmentation of Rajput votes in Barhara, a split in Brahmin votes in Shahpur, and a consolidation of votes in the name of Hindutva and Jai Shri Ram in Ara. If a new equation emerges, or if votes are consolidated around Modi, Nitish, versus Tejashwi, then the story could be different.