BJP FACES A ‘CATCH-22’ DILEMA OVER NITISH’S CM CANDIDACY BUT LEADERSHIP EXPRESSES CONFIDENCE

BJP FACES A ‘CATCH-22’ DILEMA OVER NITISH’S CM CANDIDACY BUT LEADERSHIP EXPRESSES CONFIDENCE

1-NOV-ENG 34

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

ARA-------------------------Amidst the excitement surrounding the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) today released its 'Sankalp Patra', strongly projecting Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as its CM face. BJP Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary clearly stated, "Nitish Kumar is currently the Chief Minister and will remain so." But will this manifesto truly formally approve Nitish's candidacy, or will the BJP's internal dilemma alter the electoral equation? The opposition is making it an issue of 'turncoat Nitish', while the NDA is calling it a 'guarantee of good governance.'

Nitish Kumar played a central role in the NDA's manifesto, released today at Hotel Maurya in Patna, with promises like 1 crore jobs, the 'Lakhpati Didi' scheme, and infrastructure development. Nitish, who was present on the stage with BJP President JP Nadda and other leaders, was welcomed by BJP State President Dilip Jaiswal with a shawl, symbolizing the alliance's unity. Speaking to the media, Samrat Chaudhary said about Nitish's candidacy, "Nitish Kumar is the Chief Minister and will remain so." This statement came in response to Tejashwi Yadav's CM claim, which appears to be an attempt to counter the Grand Alliance's strategy.

The NDA is calling it a roadmap for a "developed Bihar under Nitish's leadership." This move is strategic to reassure JDU's core voters, as the NDA's performance without Nitish in the 2020 elections was weak.

The debate over Nitish Kumar's CM candidacy has been ongoing for a long time, and today's developments have further intensified it. According to journalist Manoj Mukul's analysis, this is a "Catch-22" situation for the BJP. On the one hand, the BJP's core voter base (especially the upper castes) has been seeking its own CM since 2015. If Nitish's name is formally announced, this vote bank could become disgruntled, a target of strategists like Prashant Kishor. On the other hand, if the announcement is not made, Nitish's voters (EBC and OBC) could become indifferent, which would prove fatal for the NDA.

Statements from BJP leaders clearly indicate that they are supporting Nitish in bits and pieces—postponing a formal announcement. However, experts believe that as the elections approach (the first phase begins on November 6), the top leadership will confirm Nitish's name, as without him the NDA's vote share could fall by 10-15%. Opposition leaders like Akhilesh Yadav also criticized Nitish's candidacy, citing a "demand for change" in Bihar and accusing the BJP of a "conspiracy."

Nitish's image of "flip-flopping" (changing alliances in 2013, 2015, 2017, 2022, and 2024) also remains an issue. He himself has repeatedly stated that he will not change sides, but the opposition is calling it a transition from "Sushasan Babu" to "flip-flopping." The MY (Muslim-Yadav) equation has now shifted to women and youth, where Nitish's factor could prove decisive.

The Grand Alliance attempted to undermine Nitish's candidacy. Tejashwi Yadav called the manifesto a "sorry letter" and taunted Nitish, asking if the BJP would "betray" him again. The Congress and RJD are calling it "Nitish's compulsion," while independent strategists like Pragatisheel Kishor (PK) are eyeing the BJP's "Apna CM" vote. A debate is raging on social media, with users comparing Nitish Kumar vs. Tejashwi.

The manifesto issued on October 31, 2025, has strengthened Nitish Kumar's CM candidacy, but the BJP remains in a dilemma. A formal announcement will strengthen the NDA; otherwise, the Grand Alliance will benefit. The votes of Bihar's 60% youth population and women will be decisive—will it be a return to 'good governance' or an era of 'change'? The public will have the final say.