DOES RJD STILL DOMINATE THE MUSLIM VOTES?

DOES RJD STILL DOMINATE THE MUSLIM VOTES?

12-SEP-ENG 11

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

PATNA-----------------------As the date of assembly elections in Bihar approaches, all political parties have intensified their strategy. The focus of every party is now focused on the minority community of the state, especially Muslim voters, who have long been an important part of the political equations. According to the caste survey conducted by the Nitish Kumar government in 2022, the Muslim community accounts for 17.7 percent of the total population of Bihar, which was 16.9 percent according to the 2011 census. This increase shows that the impact of the Muslim vote bank can be more influential in future politics.

Out of the 243 assembly seats in the state, there are about 87 seats where the Muslim population is more than 20%. Apart from this, the Muslim population in 47 seats is between 15-20%. It is clear from these figures that the Muslim community has the ability to overturn the electoral results in many areas. The Seemanchal area of ​​​​Bihar, which includes Araria, Kishanganj, Katihar and Purnia, is considered a Muslim-dominated area. The Muslim population in Kishanganj is 68%, Katihar 44%, Araria 43% and Purnia 38%. A total of 24 assembly seats come in these four districts, which are considered decisive for political parties.

Traditionally, Muslim voters of Bihar have been inclined towards the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). RJD under the leadership of Lalu Prasad Yadav has maintained a strong hold among this class for a long time. At the same time, Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United has been getting an average of 5% vote share from the Muslim community. With the change in political alliances, the trend of Muslim votes has also seen fluctuations.

When JDU allied with the Left parties in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it got 23.5% of the Muslim votes, but due to the alliance with the BJP in the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, this vote share fell to 6% and 12% respectively. At the same time, the RJD-Congress alliance got about 87% support of Muslim votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. When Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav joined hands in the 2015 assembly elections, the Grand Alliance got about 80% support of Muslim votes. However, this support fell to 5% after Nitish Kumar again allied with the BJP before 2020.

In the 2020 assembly elections also, the Grand Alliance (RJD+Congress+Left parties) got 76% of the Muslim votes. It is clear from these figures that Muslim voters maintain distance from the BJP-led NDA and prefer the Congress-RJD alliance. As the election date is approaching, all the parties have become active in Seemanchal and Muslim dominated areas. AIMIM, RJD, Congress, JDU and BJP are all adopting various strategies to woo this section.

Although parties like AIMIM have registered their presence in Seemanchal, the majority of Muslim votes still go towards big national or regional alliances. Now it remains to be seen whether Muslim voters go with the RJD-Congress alliance this time again or the wave of political change writes some new history.