WHAT IS CHIRAG PASWAN’S ‘SHAHABAD PLAN’?

WHAT IS CHIRAG PASWAN’S ‘SHAHABAD PLAN’?

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RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

PATNA--------------------------The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has set a target of winning 225 seats in Bihar. To achieve this, joint NDA conferences have been held in various districts, and now preparations are underway to field prominent leaders. Chirag Paswan, 'Modi's Hanuman,' has the responsibility of fixing the NDA's weak link. He has even launched his campaign campaign on June 8th to secure Shahabad.

Shahabad is the NDA's weakest link: The Shahabad region was once an NDA stronghold. The NDA used to win 100% of the seats, but the situation has changed in the last few elections, and the Left parties have gained a foothold in the Shahabad region. Thanks to the Left party cadre vote, the Grand Alliance is performing well in the Shahabad region. Shahabad proved to be the NDA's weakest point during the Lok Sabha elections, and it suffered a crushing defeat.

Grand Alliance's resounding victory in Shahabad: Looking ahead to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Grand Alliance also won the Buxar seat, considered a strong NDA seat. Sudhakar Singh of the Rashtriya Janata Dal was elected MP from there. The Congress party defeated the BJP in the Sasaram Lok Sabha seat, electing Manoj Kumar as MP.

CPI(ML) wins two Lok Sabha seats: Meanwhile, senior NDA leader Upendra Kushwaha was in the fray for the Karakat Lok Sabha seat, but he lost, while Rajaram of the CPI(ML) was elected MP. Union Minister RK Singh also lost the Ara Lok Sabha seat, while Sudama Prasad of the CPI(ML) won. Thus, the CPI(ML) holds two Lok Sabha seats in the Shahabad region.

NDA's defeat in the 2020 elections: The NDA was also wiped out in the 2020 assembly elections. The Shahabad region has a total of 22 assembly seats. While the JDU failed to even open its account, it could only retain the Ara and Barhara seats. However, in the 2024 by-elections, the BJP captured the Tarari and Ramgarh assembly seats. Following the assembly elections, the JDU inducted Jama Khan, who won on a BSP ticket, into its party. Currently, the NDA has five MLAs in the Shahabad region.

NDA leans on Chirag Paswan in Shahabad: Mahadalit and Paswan voters play a decisive role in many assembly constituencies in the Shahabad region. The Paswan voter base is 5.3 percent. A portion of the Paswan vote goes to the CPI(ML), causing the NDA to suffer continuous losses. In such a situation, the NDA has changed its strategy this time and has fielded Union Minister Chirag Paswan in the Shahabad battleground. Through Chirag, the National Democratic Alliance hopes to make inroads into the Left parties' vote share there.

Chirag launches campaign: Chirag Paswan has also launched his election campaign from Ara. Addressing a rally on Saturday, he claimed that change has begun. Chirag said that he will contest all 243 seats in Bihar and will campaign for the victory of all NDA candidates.

LJPR claims victory: Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) spokesperson Rajesh Bhatt said, "Our leader Chirag Paswan has sounded the bugle of change from the land of Shahabad. Dalits, backward classes, and extremely backward communities in the Shahabad region have rallied behind Chirag Paswan. This crowd reflects what the people want." He claims that, like the Lok Sabha elections, we will achieve 100% results in the Assembly elections as well.

"Our leader's rally in Ara confirms that Chirag Paswan is ready to demolish the Left's stronghold this time, and the NDA is going to capture 100% of the seats." - Rajesh Bhatt, spokesperson, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas)

What did the BJP spokesperson say?: Bharatiya Janata Party spokesperson Prem Ranjan Patel also believes that Chirag Paswan will definitely benefit the alliance. He says, "We did not perform as well as expected during the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, but we snatched two seats from the Grand Alliance in the by-elections. Chirag Paswan is a senior leader of the NDA, and his activism will definitely benefit the alliance."

"Crowd gathering doesn't win votes": However, Communist Party of India MLA Suryakant Paswan does not believe that Chirag Paswan will cause any kind of split in the Left's vote share. He said that Chirag Paswan never raises his voice on Dalit issues, so he is unlikely to be a factor in this election.

"Chirag Paswan is an empty-headed leader. Just because he gathers a small crowd doesn't mean he has the votes. Chirag Paswan never raises his voice on Dalit issues. Several incidents have occurred in Bihar in recent times, angering the Dalit community. Chirag Paswan didn't even bother to take notice." - Suryakant Paswan, MLA, CPI

What do experts say?: Political analyst Sunil Pandey believes that the National Democratic Alliance has suffered setbacks in two elections, and this time, through Chirag, the NDA is looking to garner Dalit, Mahadalit, backward, and extremely backward votes. If he succeeds in making inroads into the Left parties' vote bank, it will certainly impact the election results.

"If Chirag Paswan manages to make inroads into the Left parties' cadre vote, If they succeed, the NDA will be able to perform better in Shahabad. Chirag Paswan's announcement has created difficulties for the Grand Alliance. The equation may change in the coming times, though we will have to wait for now." - Sunil Pandey, political analyst.