CONGRESS’S INTERNAL CONFLICT: THE TWO AND A HALF YEAR ROTATION FORMULA IS A CRISIS: AJAY KUMAR

CONGRESS’S INTERNAL CONFLICT: THE TWO AND A HALF YEAR ROTATION FORMULA IS A CRISIS: AJAY KUMAR

24-JAN-ENG 11

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

ARA-----------------------------The storm brewing in Karnataka politics for the past few days is now clearly showing the extent to which the power struggle at the top of the state government has reached. The Congress party secured a resounding victory in the 2023 assembly elections. The Congress won 135 out of 224 seats, while the BJP was reduced to 66 seats and the JDS to 19 seats. After the victory, the Congress formed the government in the state, but the real power struggle began the very day Siddaramaiah was made the Chief Minister and D.K. Shivakumar was appointed Deputy Chief Minister with the understanding that his turn would come after two and a half years. The clock is now ticking on this two-and-a-half-year rotation formula. With Siddaramaiah's two and a half years in office coming to an end, Shivakumar's supporters have started increasing pressure on the party leadership. The arrival of his close MLAs in Delhi without prior notice and their attempts to meet Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge are considered part of this pressure politics. The photos and videos of this meeting that went viral have further intensified the political turmoil in Karnataka.

Amidst speculations of a change of power in the state, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has made his stance clear. He said that Karnataka has received a five-year mandate and he will complete his five-year term. Dismissing the discussions of a "November revolution" in the media, he said that the government under his leadership is stable and he will present next year's budget as well. Siddaramaiah's statement clearly shows that he is not in the mood to relinquish his position. Political analysts believe that Siddaramaiah wants to set a record for being the longest-serving Chief Minister of Karnataka, and this opportunity is extremely important for him. On the other hand, Shivakumar, while patiently waiting for the high command's decision, is also seizing every opportunity to strengthen his claim. He is the biggest leader of the Vokkaliga community, and his hold in South Karnataka is very strong. Although some sections of this community leaned towards the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Shivakumar's hold on the state organization remains undiminished. He has carved out a distinct identity as the Congress party's crisis manager. His activism and strategic acumen during crises in states like Madhya Pradesh, Goa, and Gujarat are considered a major asset within the party. This is why, despite pressure from the CBI and ED just before the 2023 Karnataka elections, he stood firm, and after the electoral victory, he and Siddaramaiah began this new chapter of power-sharing.

But this story has always had an unspoken conflict, which has now come to the surface. Shivakumar's statement that "no position is permanent, I am first in line" is a clear declaration of his ambition. He is constantly assuring his supporters that his turn will come. But when that will be is the question that is currently unsettling Karnataka politics. The Congress high command is now grappling with managing this unrest. The BJP has seized on this entire situation, calling it an "internal crisis of the Congress," and has gone on the offensive. The opposition alleges that administrative work has been severely affected due to the power struggle. Contractors have claimed that payments worth approximately ₹33,000 crore are being delayed. The impact of this is clearly visible on development projects. BJP leaders have also accused the Congress government of implementing relief schemes for the people of the state only on paper, while development on the ground has stalled. The growing unease within the Congress can be gauged from the fact that several MLAs believe that if the situation continues like this, the party will suffer the consequences in the 2028 elections. Some senior party leaders have openly urged the high command to clarify the situation and end the power struggle over the chief ministerial post. In internal meetings, there has been a consensus that the party's message should be one of unity, not of a power struggle.

The question also remains whether Shivakumar will take drastic steps if the high command does not risk removing Siddaramaiah. Their statements often indicate that they do not associate themselves with decisions outside the party, but nothing is impossible in politics. The Maharashtra model has been discussed many times, where governments have been overthrown overnight. Shivakumar's better relations with the BJP have also been discussed repeatedly. Political inferences are also drawn from the existence of cases filed against him and the activity of the agencies. Therefore, it would not surprise anyone if the BJP seeks an opportunity in this internal Congress struggle. It is said that the compromise between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar was the foundation of the Congress victory. But now, that same compromise is destabilizing the Congress government. The high command faces Siddaramaiah's OBC politics on one hand, and Shivakumar's organizational grip and Vokkaliga vote bank on the other. Both leaders have their own strengths and limitations. In such a situation, displeasing either side would be risky for the Congress.

The buzz in Bengaluru suggests that something big is going to happen in the coming days. If Siddaramaiah is removed, he might consider it a move against his political legacy, and his resentment could come out openly. On the other hand, if Shivakumar's claim is disregarded, his supporters might consider it a breach of promise and take to the streets. This rising tide within the Congress could turn into a tsunami in the coming months. It could also happen. The people of the state had hoped that the government, elected with a massive majority, would write a new chapter of development. But today, the state's politics are entangled in a conflict between two competing aspirations for power. Resolving this struggle is as crucial for the Congress high command as it is difficult. Who will emerge victorious and who will be sidelined in this battle for power in Karnataka will be decided in the coming weeks. But one thing is certain: this political maneuvering has plunged the future of power in Karnataka into a state of uncertainty.