ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2026: A NECK-TO NECK RACE IN BENGAL: DEVANAND SINGH

ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2026: A NECK-TO NECK RACE IN BENGAL: DEVANAND SINGH

7-APRIL-ENG 24

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

ARA----------------------------The opinion poll released by MATRIZE—ahead of the upcoming assembly elections in four key states: West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Assam—has significantly raised the political temperature. The figures indicate that while the path to power appears relatively clear in some states, the contest in Bengal and Kerala remains intensely interesting and highly uncertain.

All eyes are currently fixed on West Bengal, where crossing the magic figure of 138 seats is essential to secure power. According to the opinion poll, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is projected to secure a 43% vote share, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is estimated to receive 41%. In terms of seats, the TMC is likely to win between 140 and 160 seats, and the BJP between 130 and 150, while other parties are expected to secure between 8 and 16 seats. These figures clearly demonstrate that the contest in Bengal is extremely close, and even a marginal swing in votes could alter the balance of power.

Political analysts observe that while the BJP is asserting its claim to strengthen its foothold "from Kamakhya to Kalighat" and "from the South to Dakshineswar," Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has been seeking a mandate based on her government's performance over the past 15 years; however, recent political developments have challenged this narrative. Factors such as the handing over of investigations into incidents like the one in Malda to the NIA, and the questions raised by the judiciary regarding the state bureaucracy, have also influenced the electoral atmosphere.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message of "Nation First" remains the central pillar of the BJP’s campaign. The BJP is projecting this as the defining characteristic of its governance model, whereas the opposition dismisses it as mere political rhetoric. Consequently, the election in Bengal has evolved into a contest that is not merely about a change of power, but also a clash of ideologies. Turning our gaze toward South India, the contest in Tamil Nadu presents a distinct dynamic. Here, the NDA is projected to secure a 40% vote share, while the DMK+ is expected to garner 38%; meanwhile, the TVK could influence the electoral equations with a 16% share of the vote. This suggests that the battle in Tamil Nadu will not be a one-sided affair, and the role of smaller parties could prove decisive.

In Kerala, the electoral landscape has traditionally witnessed a direct face-off between the LDF and the UDF, and the picture appears largely similar this time around. According to opinion polls, the LDF is projected to win between 62 and 68 seats, while the UDF is expected to secure 67 to 73 seats. The BJP+ is estimated to win 5 to 8 seats. These figures indicate that while the possibility of a change of government in Kerala remains open, the margin of victory is unlikely to be substantial.

In the northeastern state of Assam, the electoral picture appears relatively clearer. Here, the NDA is projected to secure a clear majority with 92 to 102 seats, whereas the Congress+ alliance may be limited to a tally of 22 to 32 seats. Other parties are expected to account for 4 to 7 seats. This implies that the ruling alliance in Assam continues to maintain a strong foothold.

However, it is crucial to bear in mind that opinion polls merely reflect potential trends rather than final outcomes. In Indian politics, factors such as ground-level dynamics, local issues, the public image of candidates, and voter turnout often alter the electoral landscape at the very last moment. This is particularly true in states like Bengal and Kerala—where the contest is extremely tight—where even a minor shift can have a significant impact.

All in all, the 2026 elections will not only determine the governments of these respective states but could also shape the future trajectory of national politics. In Bengal, the pivotal question remains: will the BJP be able to cross the 138-seat mark, or will Mamata Banerjee succeed in retaining her firm grip on power? Meanwhile, the election results from Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala are also poised to send fresh signals across the country's political landscape.