LECTIONS, EXILE AND MINORITY FEARS: WHY BANGLADESH’S ELECTION MATTERS TO INDIA

LECTIONS, EXILE AND MINORITY FEARS: WHY BANGLADESH’S ELECTION MATTERS TO INDIA

27-DEC-ENG 1

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

DELHI------------------------The Bangladeshi parliamentary elections, scheduled for February 2026, have become one of the most significant political events in South Asia for India, as Dhaka undergoes a dramatic political transformation. This includes the return of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Tarique Rahman after 17 years of self-imposed exile in London, the exclusion of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League from the elections, and growing concerns over minority security.

New Delhi has openly called for “free, fair, and inclusive” elections. The outcome will not only determine who governs Bangladesh but also how stable and reliable India's most important eastern neighbor remains.

“We are all aware of the recent developments in Bangladesh,” Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said at a weekly media briefing here on Friday. “We are closely monitoring them. As far as the law and order situation is concerned, I have been telling you from time to time what our position has been and should be. The continued hostility by extremists against minorities, including Hindus, Christians, and Buddhists, in Bangladesh is a matter of great concern. We condemn the horrific murder of a Hindu youth recently in Mymensingh and hope that the perpetrators of this crime will be punished.”

Jaiswal pointed out that during the interim government's tenure, independent sources have documented more than 2,900 incidents of violence against minorities, including murders, arson, and land grabbing.

“These incidents cannot be dismissed as mere media exaggeration or political violence,” he said. Regarding Tarique Rahman's return, Jaiswal said that India supports free, fair, and inclusive elections in Bangladesh.

Jaiswal said, “This development should be seen in that context.” He further added that India's position on Bangladesh has always been clear and consistent.

The spokesperson said, “India stands for strengthening its relations with the people of Bangladesh.” “We are in favor of peace and stability in Bangladesh. We stand for free, fair, inclusive, and participatory elections, which should be held in a peaceful environment.”

The Bangladeshi parliamentary elections, scheduled for February 2026, are shaping up to be one of the most significant political events in South Asia in recent years. This is crucial not only for Bangladesh but also for India. The sudden removal of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, followed by the ban on her Awami League from contesting the elections, and the return of Tarique Rahman after 17 years of exile, have triggered a political reset in Dhaka that New Delhi cannot ignore.

For almost 15 years, India's Bangladesh policy revolved around Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League. Under Hasina, Dhaka cracked down on anti-India insurgent groups, deepened security cooperation, supported regional connectivity projects, and broadly maintained a secular political outlook. During this period, Bangladesh provided India with a level of strategic comfort that few other neighbors have offered.

With Hasina's departure in August 2024, that sense of certainty has vanished. Her exit has created a vacuum that has not yet been filled by a stable political consensus. The subsequent decision to prevent the Awami League from contesting the 2026 elections has further polarized Bangladeshi politics and raised serious questions about electoral legitimacy.

For India, the concern is not just about who wins, but also about how they win. A government formed through a highly contested or isolated election risks lacking domestic legitimacy. This makes it more vulnerable to street politics, military influence, or external manipulation, including by China or Islamist forces.

Tarique Rahman's return after 17 years in exile has completely transformed the electoral landscape. Rahman, long considered the real leader of the BNP, is seen as the frontrunner to become Bangladesh's next prime minister if his party wins.

In New Delhi, Rahman was once viewed with deep suspicion. During the 2001-2006 BNP-Jamaat-e-Islami government, when his mother Khaleda Zia was prime minister, anti-India insurgent groups operated freely from Bangladeshi soil, and relations between the two countries deteriorated sharply. That historical baggage still looms large in Indian strategic thinking.

However, Rahman's recent messaging has been quite different. He has signaled support for secularism, stability, and improved relations with India. This is a shift that New Delhi is quietly observing. For India, it offers a chance to work with a post-Hasina Bangladesh that is not inimical to its core interests, provided Rahman translates his words into policy.

Upon arriving in Dhaka on Thursday, Rahman said, "Now is the time for all of us to build the country together." "In this country, there are people from the hills, the plains, Muslims, Hindus..." "There are Buddhists, there are Christians. We want to create a safe Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, whether it's a woman, man, or child, they should be able to leave their homes safely and return safely."

According to Bangladeshi researcher and journalist Shahadat Shaheen, if Rahman comes to power, relations between New Delhi and Dhaka will be better than under Muhammad Yunus's current interim government.

Shaheen told ETV Bharat over the phone from Dhaka, “An expert group is working on the BNP's foreign policy under Tarique Rahman.” “I expect better India-Bangladesh relations because Tarique Rahman is attracting academics. He is meeting with South Asian experts, and I think he will be practical and follow realpolitik.”

An expert, who spoke to ETV Bharat on condition of anonymity, said, “Yes, if Tarique Rahman comes to power, India-Bangladesh relations will improve.” “He wants to bring peace, stability, and prosperity to Bangladesh. Without India's support, this will not be possible.” The expert added that the world has changed since Rahman's mother, Khaleda Zia, was prime minister. Then there is the question of the Awami League being banned from participating in the elections.

Shaheen said, “If you look at the electoral map of Bangladesh, the Awami League is still popular in many places.” “If Awami League candidates stand as independent candidates, they can win from some constituencies.”

According to the Indian expert mentioned above, many members of the Awami League have defected to other parties, including the BNP. The expert said, “It remains to be seen whether they will actually be able to file their nominations.” Ultimately, the February 2026 elections will determine whether Bangladesh embarks on a path of stable democratic transition or descends into prolonged political turmoil. For India, this is not just about personalities like Tarique Rahman or Sheikh Hasina, but also about whether Dhaka will remain a reliable, secular, and strategically aligned neighbor. Therefore, as Bangladesh heads towards the elections, New Delhi is watching more closely than ever, not only to see who wins, but also to see if democracy prevails.