IRAN-ISRAEL WAR: WHY IS PEACE ESSENTIAL FOR INDIA?:NISHIKANT THAKUR

IRAN-ISRAEL WAR: WHY IS PEACE ESSENTIAL FOR INDIA?:NISHIKANT THAKUR

15-MARCH-ENG 17

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWL

ARA----------------------------Following the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Israel has claimed that Iran has selected Mojtaba Khamenei as its new Supreme Leader. This claim by Israel has since been confirmed by Iran. It is worth noting that on February 28, 2026, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in Tehran during a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike. This attack focused on his compound, utilizing over 30 bombs, which resulted in the complete destruction of his residence. It was a meticulously planned and swift aerial operation, executed in broad daylight. The United States had shared precise intelligence regarding the location, which determined the timing of the strikes. Satellite imagery confirmed that Khamenei's office—the 'Leadership House Compound' in Tehran—sustained severe damage. Several close family members of Khamenei were also killed in this attack. Confirming the incident, the Iranian media and government have announced a 40-day period of state mourning. According to a Fox News broadcast, Donald Trump stated that he is "not happy" about Mojtaba Khamenei being appointed as the new Supreme Leader. According to Fox News anchor Brian Kilmeade, when he spoke with President Trump following the announcement of the new Supreme Leader, Trump remarked, "I am not happy."

Among the various factors cited as causes for the conflict between Iran and Israel, one significant reason is that Israel views Iran as an existential threat. Israel has accused Iran of harboring genocidal intentions, while Iran has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. Consequently, Israel has called for sanctions and military action against Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. Bilateral relations have evolved from an initial U.S. policy of sympathy and support toward the establishment of a Jewish homeland in 1948 into a partnership that links the United States—a superpower striving to balance competing interests in the Middle East—with Israel, a small yet militarily powerful nation. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned this conflict and appealed to both sides to adhere to international law. Both sides claim to be in the right; however, to determine whether the initial attacks launched against Iran were lawful, we must look beneath the surface. We must revisit the standards of international law that were established in the wake of the horrors of World War II—standards to which the majority of nations had consented.

On February 28, when the United States and Israel commenced bombing operations against Iran, President Donald Trump accused Iran of developing nuclear weapons that posed a threat to U.S. allies and could "soon reach the United States." During the recent conflict in March 2026, under the banner of its "Truthful Promise 4" military operation, Iran launched missile and drone attacks primarily targeting U.S. military bases and assets located in Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, reports have emerged of Iranian attacks occurring in Pakistan and Iraq. Iran launched a massive barrage of missiles against Israel. Attacks were also carried out against bases belonging to the Jaish-ul-Adl group near the borders of Pakistan and Balochistan. U.S. military bases were targeted. The primary objective of these attacks was to counter the retaliatory military operations being conducted by the United States and Israel. Iran specifically targeted U.S. military bases situated within Muslim nations across the Middle East. It remains difficult to fathom—and not easily understood—what motive Iran could possibly have for launching attacks against its neighboring Islamic nations. However, the missile attacks have also shattered Dubai's image as a safe haven.

Due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the global economy—particularly oil supplies and trade—is facing a severe impact. Iran is incurring losses amounting to billions of dollars, and Israel is also facing significant economic damage, while the United States is under pressure due to dwindling military stockpiles and economic strain. India stands to suffer potential losses regarding the safety of its citizens and its energy (oil) supplies. The potential losses that various nations could incur in this major conflict are estimated as follows: According to Iranian defense experts, Iran could suffer massive direct and indirect losses ranging from $24 billion to $35 billion (approximately ₹2–3 lakh crore). Oil depots are being attacked, and infrastructure is sustaining damage. In its direct conflict with Iran, Israel is also facing substantial economic damage (estimated at between $11.5 billion and $17.8 billion). Additionally, there are reports of civilian casualties. Meanwhile, the Pentagon's defense stockpiles (such as Patriot missiles) are depleting rapidly, with each interceptor costing over $4 million. If the war drags on, it poses a risk of placing a heavy burden on the U.S. economy. Following U.S. actions in the Middle East and Venezuela, China could face strategic and economic setbacks, compelling it to strive to strengthen its ties with India and Russia. Although India is not directly involved in the war, it is suffering losses in various ways. The safety of nearly 9 million Indians working in the Gulf nations is at risk. Energy requirements could be disrupted, and the remittances (funds) flowing in from that region could also be jeopardized. If this war continues for an extended period, the greatest loss would be to their ear... ..it is the economy that will bear the brunt, as these nations are oil exporters.

The ongoing conflict (or major war) between Iran and Israel—or within the broader Middle East—could have severe economic and strategic repercussions for India. This situation poses a risk of surging inflation and fuel prices (petrol and diesel) due to rising crude oil costs, a decline in remittances (foreign earnings), and a negative impact on imports and exports resulting from supply chain disruptions. An escalation in crude oil prices could drive up the costs of transportation, cooking gas, and daily-use consumer goods. According to the rating agency Moody's, a prolonged conflict could widen India's current account deficit and weaken the Rupee. There is a risk of trade disruptions with the Middle East, which could adversely affect over 56% of India's merchandise exports. The safety of nearly 10 million Indians working in the Gulf nations remains a matter of concern; furthermore, the conflict there could jeopardize remittances amounting to US$ 51 billion. Adopting a balanced stance will be a challenging task for India, given that both nations—Iran and Israel—are key partners. In essence, this conflict could prove to be a major economic shock for India, directly impacting inflation and energy security. Thus, war—regardless of which nation wages it—never serves as a solution to any problem. As far as India is concerned, it cannot endorse any form of warfare, for India is the land of Mahatma Gandhi—the apostle of non-violence. However, setting that aside, there is no need to elaborate on the catastrophic consequences that would ensue were India to plunge into such a conflict.