EVEN THE SECOND PREFERENCE WILL DETERMINE VICTORY

EVEN THE SECOND PREFERENCE WILL DETERMINE VICTORY

15-MARCH-ENG 6

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

PATNA-----------------------On March 16, elections for five Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled in Bihar. While the NDA holds a strong position on four seats, the fifth seat faces stiff competition from the *Mahagathbandhan* (Grand Alliance); the votes of the AIMIM and BSP are set to emerge as the 'kingmakers.'

Bihar's political landscape is currently heating up significantly. The Rajya Sabha elections, scheduled for March 16, have completely immersed the state's political atmosphere in an electoral fervor. This election for five seats is no longer merely a parliamentary procedure; it has evolved into a battle of prestige between the ruling dispensation and the opposition. Reports of continuous meetings, strategic planning, and political maneuvering are constantly surfacing within political corridors.

Analyzing the Rajya Sabha elections based on the current formula, Bihar has five vacant seats and six candidates, while the total strength of the Legislative Assembly stands at 243 seats. Under these circumstances—where 243 votes must be distributed across five seats—the total number of Assembly seats is divided by the number of vacant seats plus one. Thus, dividing 243 by 6 yields a figure of 40.5—meaning approximately 41 MLAs are required to secure one seat. Currently, the NDA commands a total of 202 MLAs, making victory on four seats a certainty. As for the fifth seat, the NDA needs to secure the support of three additional MLAs who would list the NDA candidate as their first preference—and this is precisely where the real political game begins.

Meanwhile, a fierce contest for this particular seat is unfolding between the *Mahagathbandhan* and the NDA. Both camps are constantly devising strategies to keep their respective MLAs united. This is precisely why the significance of MLAs belonging to smaller parties has suddenly surged in this election. The political equations have become so intricate that MLAs from smaller parties now appear poised to play the role of 'kingmakers.'

In particular, the five MLAs from Asaduddin Owaisi's party—the AIMIM—and the sole MLA from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) could play a decisive role in determining the outcome of this election. All in all, the significance of these six votes has grown to such an extent that the eyes of both political camps are fixed squarely upon them. Political parties are ceaselessly engaged in efforts to establish contact and garner support.

In essence, in Assembly or Lok Sabha elections, the candidate who secures the highest number of votes is declared the winner. However, Rajya Sabha elections operate under the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system of proportional representation, a mechanism that distinguishes them from general elections. Under this system, legislators do not simply cast a vote for a single candidate; rather, they rank multiple candidates in order of their preference.

During the voting process, legislators mark the Roman numeral "1" next to their preferred candidate on the ballot paper, designating them as their first choice. Subsequently, they may mark "2" for their second choice, "3" for their third choice, and continue to record further preferences in this manner. During the vote count, the first-preference votes are tallied first.

To secure a victory, a candidate must obtain a number of votes exceeding 50 percent of the total valid votes cast. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. Subsequently, the second-preference votes recorded on that candidate's ballot papers are transferred to the remaining candidates. Through this iterative process, the ultimate winner is eventually determined.

This is precisely why the Rajya Sabha election in Bihar has become so intriguing this time around. Alongside first-preference votes, second and third-preference votes have also assumed immense significance. It is not uncommon for a candidate who trails in the initial first-preference count to surge ahead by securing second-preference votes.

Consequently, all political parties are meticulously strategizing to guide their legislators through the voting process. Political circles are also abuzz with speculation that if legislators from smaller parties firmly align themselves with one particular camp, the electoral dynamics for the fifth seat could undergo a complete transformation.

Now, all eyes are fixed on the voting scheduled for March 16th and the results that will follow. It remains to be seen whether the NDA will succeed in capturing the fifth seat as well, or if the *Mahagathbandhan* (Grand Alliance) will execute a last-minute political maneuver to pull off a major upset. This political contest in Bihar could also yield several new political signals in the days to come.