THE ERA OF KETTLES HOTTER EVEN THAN THE TEA THEY HOLD

THE ERA OF KETTLES HOTTER EVEN THAN THE TEA THEY HOLD

21-MARCH-ENG 16

RAJIV NAYAN AGRAWAL

ARA-----------------------------Barring Assam, if anyone can spot even a faint, flickering flame of hope for the BJP anywhere else in these assembly elections, I consider their boundless optimism truly commendable. … Therefore, until the voting concludes in these five states, simply keep watching the glow radiating from the BJP’s countenance—and wait for the actual results.

As happens before every election, the Bharatiya Janata Party—along with its entire ecosystem and its partisan media allies—begins to craft a narrative right from the outset: that the BJP is poised to win with a massive majority everywhere, while the opposition faces a crushing defeat. This time, too, the process of manufacturing just such a scenario regarding the elections in these five states has already begun. Working in tandem with the BJP, the various affiliate organizations of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh have utilized a significant section of the media to vigorously sound the bugle, proclaiming that the opposition parties are headed for disaster in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry—and that in every state, the BJP is set to achieve a victory so spectacular that it will leave people utterly dumbfounded.

The primary target of this Goebbelsian propaganda is West Bengal. Anchors and correspondents have already begun to beat the drums—across television screens and newspaper pages—announcing a massive defeat for Mamata Banerjee in her stronghold of Bhabanipur. Voting in West Bengal is scheduled for April 23 and 29. The filing of nominations begins on April 2, and the true standing of the political parties' candidates will only become clear after April 13—the final deadline for the withdrawal of nominations. Yet, Narendra Bhai Modi’s "media-kettles"—which run even hotter than the tea they brew—have already set about declaring that the Trinamool Congress’s farewell and the BJP’s coronation are now mere formalities.

Currently, the BJP holds 77 seats in West Bengal. To secure a majority in the Legislative Assembly, it requires 148 MLAs. It appears to the party that, following the removal of 1 to 1.25 crore names from the voter list, its path to victory has become completely smooth sailing. The BJP also harbors the delusion that the approximately 5.25 lakh young people voting for the first time will enthusiastically cast their ballots exclusively in its favor. However, the BJP fails to realize that winning the tug-of-war against the Trinamool Congress will not be easy for it; in the 2021 elections, Mamata secured 48.5 percent of the votes, while the BJP received 38.5 percent. Bridging this 10 percent gap is no easy task. Even in the Lok Sabha elections held about a year ago, the Trinamool Congress garnered 46.25 percent of the votes. This implies that there has been no such decline in its popularity as would allow the BJP to double its seat tally this time compared to the previous election.

That said, if the BJP appears confident about securing a victory once again in Assam, I can certainly understand the logic behind that optimism. Polling in the state is scheduled for April 9, and the candidates representing various political parties have now been unveiled. Despite the fact that Priyanka Gandhi has left no stone unturned in her efforts in Assam, the ground reality for the Congress party remains somewhat shaky. The morale of Congress workers has taken a hit due to the departure of several prominent leaders who quit the party just ahead of the elections. Yet, it remains a fact that in the previous Assembly elections, the vote share gap between the Congress and the BJP was a mere 3.5 percent. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the vote percentages for the Congress and the BJP were exactly equal, with both parties securing 38 percent of the votes each. Therefore, it is by no means a certainty that the "political elephant" of Assam will, with its majestic stride, choose to lumber in the BJP's direction once again this time around.

The BJP also appears to be displaying an excessive degree of enthusiasm regarding Tamil Nadu. Polling in the state is scheduled for April 23. By the time the election results are declared on May 4, the BJP's current exuberance will likely have transformed entirely into despair. No matter how hard the BJP tried to forge a winning coalition of anti-DMK and anti-Congress forces, those efforts failed to yield any meaningful results. Six million names have been struck off Tamil Nadu's electoral rolls. Consequently, the BJP feels that this time around, it might just manage to lay a brick or two in the foundation of its own presence. The BJP is also wearing a broad smile, buoyed by the fact that the DMK has been ruffled by various statements issued by a few young novices within the Congress party. However, the BJP is currently in no position to make any significant inroads into the DMK's 38 percent vote share. The 1.25 million first-time voters—on whom the party is pinning its hopes—are, after all, Dravidians. Therefore, the BJP—a party rooted in the 'Cow Belt'—is bound to face disappointment from them.

In Kerala, ever since the results of the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation elections were declared, the BJP has been dancing with unbridled exuberance. However, securing power in a single municipal corporation due to highly localized factors is one thing; hoisting one's flag over the entirety of Kerala—a state with a political ethos diametrically opposed to that of the BJP—is quite another. In the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly, the previous elections saw the Marxist Party win 62 seats, the Communist Party 17, and the Congress 21. Collectively, these three parties garnered a combined vote share of 58.25 percent. There appears to be no discernible shift in the political mood of Kerala to suggest that any radical transformation is likely to occur there this time around.

For some time now, the politics of Puducherry has been following the opportunistic path of "being a Gangaram when at the Ganges, and a Jamunadas when at the Yamuna." Sixty thousand names have been removed from the electoral rolls there as well. For a Union Territory with a total electorate of approximately 950,000 voters, the impact of this cannot be overlooked. In the previous assembly elections, 60 percent of the votes were cast in favor of political parties that were, fundamentally, opposed to the BJP. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress party won the sole seat in Puducherry, securing 53.5 percent of the vote. While this ground-level arithmetic does not favor the BJP, ultimately, everything will hinge on whether this election's results bring with them the currents of the Ganges or the flow of the Yamuna.

With the exception of Assam, in these assembly elections, the BJP has not found favorable prospects anywhere else. If anyone can still discern even a faint, flickering flame of hope, I consider their boundless optimism truly commendable. Notwithstanding the fact that Narendra Bhai Modi and Amit Bhai Shah must surely be well-acquainted with this ground reality, I nonetheless applaud their equestrian prowess—specifically, the sheer tenacity with which they spur the 'steed of rhetoric' in the electoral battlefield. We all witnessed how vigorously they beat the hollow drum of the slogan, "Abki Baar, Chaar Sau Paar" (This Time, Crossing 400), and how—even after falling short at 169 + 71 = 240—they managed to shake off their disappointment within a mere few days. Therefore, keep watching the glow radiating from the BJP's countenance right up until the voting concludes in the five states, and await the actual results.